Bearcats back on track? Maybe.

Due to a hellish 10 days at work and the loss to Fresno State that left me speechless, I haven't posted in a while.  Regarding the Fresno State game:  I was stunned at how bad we looked.  I expected the offense to pickup where it left off and for the defense to struggle.  Boy was I wrong.  The defense actually looked pretty good, especially against the run, and the offense looked horrible. 

Fresno State recorded 8 sacks after getting only 11 all of last year (ranked 119/120 teams), plus had many more QB hits and hurries.  Some of this was Zach Collaros fault for holding the ball too long, and trying to make too many plays with his feet when he should have thrown it away, but much of it was the offensive lines fault.  Center Jason Kelce stated that the problem wasn't that the line was being man-handled, as it appeared, but rather that "There were a lot of mental breakdowns, which can't happen.  That's the number one thing in football. Everyone has to be on the same page, especially on the offensive line. If guys aren't on the same page, bad things are going to happen."  Zach Collaros often looked lost.  The wide receivers seldom were open.  The running game barely averaged 2 yards per carry.  Adding injury to insult was the loss of WR Vidal Hazleton to a torn ACL.

Against Indiana State, a far inferior team, things didn't start any better.  UC led only 12-7 at halftime, as the offense again looked inept.  One of the stars of the team, WR DJ Woods, lost 2 fumbles and had an unsportsmanlike penalty against him.  The passing game was again mediocre.  I don't know if its the new system, or the pressure of being the full-time starter, but it's was hard to believe Collaros is the same guy who won 4 starts in relief of Tony Pike last season.  UC blew the game open in the 3rd quarter with 4 touchdowns, but much of the output came from the running game.  The 4th quarter was scoreless with reserves getting reps. 

I would have like to see UC throw more even when they had the lead.  It would have given the offensive line a chance to work on their pass blocking a little more.  It's not time to hit the panic button yet, but certainly things need to start clicking soon.  UC is at NC State on Thursday and will provide a much stiffer test than Indiana State.  UC then has 9 days to prepare to host top 10 Oklahoma.  The Bearcats could get embarrassed if they don't get their offensive woes behind them soon.

Cincinnati @ Fresno State: Keys to the game

Cincinnati travels to "the doghouse" as a 2.5 point underdog versus Fresno State.  Since 1990 Fresno State has won 78% of their non-conference games at Bulldog Stadium, which seats 41,000.  The place is sure to be packed with a rowdy crowd anxious to beat a BCS opponent.  Fortunately UC has experience with this as they went into Corvallis, Washington last year for a rare win at Oregon State.

In last season's 28-20 UC victory, the Bulldogs ran the ball for 290 yards, which allowed them to hold the ball (and keep UC's offense off the field) for nearly 45 minutes.  Expect more of the same this year.  Gone is RB Ryan Mathews to the NFL, but he is replaced by Robbie Rouse who is only 5-7, but a solid 185 pounds.  Last year against the Bearcats, Rouse had 5 carries for 50 yards.  Even more daunting is the fact that Fresno State returns all 5 starters on the offensive line (and 18 starters total) from last years team.  In addition to the running game, Fresno State boasts as experienced senior quarterback and wide receiver.  I expect them to test UC's pass defense early to keep the defense off balance and setup the run.

If there is one weakness for Fresno State it is their defensive backs.  Two senior starters are gone and are replaced with two sophomores who have never started a game.  Expect Zach Collaros and company to take advantage.

For Cincinnati, they need to take what Fresno State gives them and not hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If they do that, I don't think the Fresno State defense can stop them.  Fresno State's best chance is a repeat of last year's game plan:  run, run, and run some more so that the UC offense doesn't get many opportunites.  UC's reconfigured 4-3 defense will need to do a better job of stuffing the run than last year's 3-4 did.  If they can get off the field, UC should win this game.  Both team's are strong offensively, but UC's is better.  If the defense can hold up, I don't see Fresno State matching the Bearcats score for score.

I don't think the score will be as close the what some of the experts are predicting.  I expect UC to pull away and win fairly easily.  My prediction:  34-23.

Say What??? - Experts Predictions

The two-time defending Big East Champion Bearcats aren't getting alot of respect in the preseason, with most experts picking someone other than the men in red and black to win the Big East title this year.  I'm sure Butch Jones and the players are using the lack of respect as motivation to prove everyone wrong....again.

UC is unranked in the AP and Coaches poll's, coming in at #26 in the voting in each.  Some other predictions:

• ESPN's Brian Bennett:  Pitt wins Big East, UC "most likely to disappoint"
• ESPN's 2010 predictions:  Of 12 "experts", 7 pick Pitt to win the Big East, 3 pick UConn, 2 pick UC.
• Sports Illustrated's 2010 Crystal Ball:  None of the experts picked UC to win the Big East:  5 picked Pitt, 1 W.Va., 1 UConn.
• Tailgate365: Picks UConn to win the Big East, UC 3rd.
• Whatifsports, a computer simulation site, picks UC to finish 2nd to Pitt in the Big East with a 9-3 overall record.
• Foxsports Big East Preview:  Big East title will come down to Pitt or W.Va.
• Sporting News Big East Predictions:  picks Pitt to win the conference

And what about tonight's game at Fresno State? 

• Las Vegas:  Most have the line favoring Fresno by 2.5.
• Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel:  Fresno 27 UC 22
• ESPN's Brian Bennett:  UC 35 Fresno 34
• Whatifsports, a computer simulation site, picks UC to win 71.9% of the time by an average score of 41-35
• Team Rankings another computer simulation site, predicts UC to beat Fresno just 52.4% of the time.
• Scout: UC 34 Fresno 30
• Sporting News:  Fresno 36 UC 33

Bearcats Preview: Defense

At the beginning of every season there are numerous questions.  For UC this is no exception.  Perhaps the biggest questions this year concern the defense.  Most pundits see the defense as the weak link that will hinder the Bearcat's quest for a 3rd straight Big East title.  Last year, Brian Kelly brought in Bob Diaco as defensive coordinator to switch UC from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.  The key to success in the 3-4 is huge lineman who can tie up a blocker or two to allow the linebackers to make plays.  Unfortunately, UC was not built to run the 3-4 and it showed.  Despite winning 12 regular season games, the defense was near statistically one of the worst in the Big East.

This season, Butch Jones and his staff have reverted to the 4-3 which allows for lineman to use their speed and athleticism to get past blockers.  This defense is a much better fit for the personnel on hand and hopefully will result in noticeable improvement over last season.  The biggest knock against this defense is that it only returns 5 starters.  With early tests against Fresno State, NC State, and Oklahoma, there better be a steep learning curve.

The defensive line is anchored by experienced junior Derek Wolfe at defensive tackle.  Joining him will be junior John Hughes.  At the ends will be sophomores Brandon Mills and Dan Giordano.  Both saw extensive playing time coming off the bench last season.

At linebacker, junior and veteran starter J.K. Schaffer anchors the group and will be joined by sophomores Walter Stewart, who started 12 games last season, and Maalik Bomar.  This position group is reportedly the most thin, in terms of talent and depth, on the team.  The starters will have to stay healthy and the backups will need to learn and improve quickly.

In the defensive backfield, junior CB Dominique Battle and sophomore S Drew Frye return, and are joined by sophomore CB Reuben Johnson and junior S Wesley Richardson.  Their backups are all freshman and sophomores, so this is another group that needs to stay healthy.

Last years defense had a hard time stopping the run and will be tested early by Fresno State.  According to reports from training camp, this years defense is more aggressive and holding its own against the offense.  In addition, they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder and something to prove to all the "experts" who have cited the defense as the reason the Bearcats will not 3-peat as Big East champs.

Bearcats Preview: Offense

Depending on what publication you read, and how you define "starter", Cincinnati returns 11 or 13 starters from last years team, with most of those on the offensive side of the ball.  The general consensus is that the offense is loaded and should be as good if not better than last year.   New head coach Butch Jones uses the same spread offense style as Brian Kelly, but runs it at an even faster tempo.  The goal is to keep defenses on their heels.

At quarterback, UC is lead by junior Zach Collaros.  Collaros started 4 games in relief of the injured Tony Pike last season and went 4-0.  In fact, Collaros hasn't lost a game as a starter since his sophomore year of high school.  Collaros makes the offense even more dangerous because he is a dual-threat that can hurt you with his running as well as his passing.  One of his first plays in relief of Pike last season was a 75 yard QB draw for a TD against South Florida.  The QB position is deep with junior Chazz Anderson and sophomore Brendon Kay both looking impressive during the preseason, and some highly touted freshman waiting in the wings.

At running back, Isiah Pead will be the featured back this year.  Pead led the Big East at just under 7 yards per carry last season, but never carried the ball more than 18 times in a game.  Coach Jones has indicated that Pead will have a bigger role in the offense this season.  Pead is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and in previous years Jones' RBs at Central Michigan featured prominently in the passing game.  Behind Pead on the depth chart is senior John Goebel who returns after an injury-plagued 2009.  He is the biggest back on the team at 213 pounds.  Sophomores Darrin Williams and Quentin Hines could also see some playing time.

Wide receiver is likely the most talented position on the team, even with the loss of star Mardy Gilyard to the NFL.  Armon Binns flourished last seasons as teams focused on stopping Gilyard.  Binns is fast, tall, strong, and can go up to get the ball.  He finished last season with 61 catches for 888 yards and 11 TDs.  Making his UC debut is highly touted transfer Vidal Hazleton, who last played two seasons ago at USC.  He has reportedly been running over DBs in practice.  Rounding out the starters is junior DJ Woods, who is small but quick and sure-handed.  He grabbed 51 balls for 540 yards and 4 TDs.  In addition to the starters senior Marcus Barnett returns to the WR position after spending time in Brian Kelly's doghouse as a DB.  Adding potency to the passing game is senior TE Ben Guidulgi, who was name 2nd team all-American by the Sporting News.  Guidulgi is big and fast, and creates matchup headaches for opposing defenses.

The offensive line returns 3 starters lead by senior center Jason Kelce.  Senior CJ Cobb and junior Sam Griffin return as the starting tackles.  Junior Alex Hoffman and freshman Evan Davis get their first starts at the guard positions.  In order of how named above, the line weighs in at 290, 304, 260, 293, & 262.

A New Season Dawns!

Are you ready for some football?  I am.  Last season was bittersweet with a fantastic, perfect 12-0 regular season that ended with Brian Kelly leaving for Notre Dame and a crushing defeat in the Sugar Bowl.  Now the Bearcats are back and reportedly hungrier than ever.  Over the next couple of days I'll preview the team, but for now some highlights from last years historic season.

Bearcats win 45-44. Big East Champs!

This was the best game I have ever seen in person.  UC overcame a shaky first half and mounted a stunning comeback to shock Pittsburgh for the Big East Championship and automatic BCS bowl bid.  There were a ton of UC fans in the stands, and nobody wanted to leave when the game was over.  A great scene!

Games of interest to UC

If UC wins at Pitt, they will go to a BCS bowl, that much is certain, but with a little help they could go to the national championship game.  The Bearcats are currently #5 in the BCS standings, behind Florida, Alabama, Texas, and TCU.   UC should move ahead of the loser of the Florida-Alabama game.  They also need the following:

• Nebraska over Texas
• Oregon State over Oregon
• Georgia Tech over Clemson
  

A Texas loss is required to get UC into the title game.  The other two games help UC's computer numbers.  UC beat Oregon State on their field, while TCU's biggest win is against Clemson.  The proper outcome of those two games might not be required, but they would help.  The dominos may start to fall tonight when Oregon & Oregon State square off with the winner going to the Rose Bowl.

Brian Kelly says he's staying, but does he mean it?

One thing that has amazed me during all the Brian Kelly to Notre Dame hoopla is the fact that Kelly has never said that Notre Dame is his dream job.  Yet most "experts" say that if the job is offered, Kelly would take it in a heartbeat.

Fueling the speculation is the fact that while other high profile coaches have come out and said they aren't interested in the Notre Dame job, Kelly has kept mum.  Until now.

On WEBN's Dawn Patrol Kelly responded to Wildman Walker's question about his status saying "I'm staying man, I'm staying, why would I go?".  Later he reiterates "I'm very happy in Cincinnati and our kids love it here, our family loves it here.  We're just going to focus in, obviously, on building this program, getting it bigger and better..."

So there you have it.  Either Kelly is really staying at UC, or he is flat out lying.

Happy Thanksgiving!

News and Notes:

• I started my Thanksgiving day by running in the 100th annual Thanksgiving Day 10k Race.  It's a Cincinnati tradition and remarkable to have a 100th annual anything.
• The Bearcats basketball team lost to Gonzaga 61-59 in an OT heartbreaker.  While the loss is disappointing, the team had a good showing with two wins over ranked opponents.
• Tony Pike returns as the starter tomorrow when the Bearcats take on Illinois at sold out Nippert Stadium at noon.  The team needs a decisive win for the nationally televised audience watching on ABC.  I'll be there and can hardly wait!
• I don't know much about Illinois except that they have been inconsistent and have a poor pass defense.  UC's high powered attack should be able to take advantage, and hopefully the defense can return to early season form.
• UC once again needs Texas, Alabama, or Florida to lose this weekend to have a shot at the national championship game.  That doesn't look likely as all are favored by double-digits, although Texas A&M is giving Texas a game right now.  UC should be able to pass TCU in the BCS standings based on their strength of schedule if they win out.
• Next weeks game at Pitt is at noon.  That makes it tough to road-trip up there the day of the game, but there are cheap hotels in the suburbs with vacancies Friday night and tickets are still available for $30.  This could be the biggest game in UC history.
• Speaking of Pitt tickets, I got mine in the mail yesterday.  I thought they might be decent since it was the block allocated to UC but actually they suck.  I will be in row GG of section 505 in the corner of the stadium.  Oh well, at least I'll be there.

Defensive Deficiency? I Disagree.

Alot has been made of the high score posted by Connecticut in Cincinnati's 47-45 win last Saturday. Varied sites are saying things like UConn "picked apart" the UC defense, and that the game "exposed the warts, moles and scar tissue on the Big East's beauty queen". It has led to one writer from Foxsports picking West Virginia as his "Upset pick of the week" at the end of this article.

I disagree.

The belief is that the large, physical UConn offensive line wore down the smaller, quicker UC defense with their grind-it-out style of play. That would probably mean a huge time of possession advantage for UConn (similar to the Fresno State game), right? Um no. Actually UC led time of possession 32:45 to 27:15. A few long, sustained UConn drives that wore down the defense? No again. Connecticut had only one scoring drive greater than 2 minutes in the 2nd half (6:42) and only 2 in the 1st half (4:36 & 4:25).

So what's the problem then? Very simply, UConn made some very big plays in the 2nd half. Jordan Todman had a 46-yd TD run, Robert McClain had an 87-yd TD punt return, and Zach Frazer completed a 52-yd pass to Khalif Moore that setup a 1-yd run by Todman. Those 3 drives took 0:41, 0:00, and 1:30, respectively. They accounted for 22 of UConn's 35 second half points. Without those big plays, UConn still might have scored, but it would have taken more time and prevented them from having the number of possessions needed to get back into the game.

The Cincinnati defense made mistakes, but it is not a hidden flaw that has been exposed. It's a few missed assignments that gave way to the big play and a couple of big plays often result in an upset. "Everything that happened can be fixed. It was just one guy out of position here, two guys out of position there." Bearcats linebacker Marcus Waugh said. The UC defense has generally not been burned by big plays prior to the UConn game. I am sure that the defense and special teams had a good week of practice and are eager to prove that last week's game was a fluke.

While a big, physical offensive attack isn't an ideal matchup for the Bearcats defense, they proved against Fresno State that they can win against it. This week's matchup against West Virginia features an offense that relies more on speed than power, which should be a more favorable matchup for UC.

Cincy Committed to Kelly

If you are on Facebook check out this group called "Cincy Committed to Kelly". They are selling red towels that read the same at locations around Cincinnati, and around campus prior to games.

The description from the group page says:
We've all seen how great of a coach Brian Kelly is. Let's show our support for him! Purchase a Cincy Committed to Kelly towel! All proceeds of your $3 donation benefits the Jefferson Sports Complex and the Down Syndrome Association of Cincinnati.

Thanks to our sponsors. Towels can be purchased at the following locations:
- Montgomery Inn Montgomery
- Montgomery Inn Boathouse
- Holy Grail in Clifton,
- Nothing but Net on Mt Caramel Tobasco Road
- Willie's Sports Cafe in Montgomery
- Willie's Sports Cafe Covington
- Kuhl's Hot Sports Spot - 7860 Beechmont Avenue
- Planet Collectibles inside the Beechmont Mall

A post on the group page also indicates that there will be a "Brian Kelly" chant at the end of the 1st quarter of tonight's game vs. West Virginia. If you are there, join in!

Collaros featured on ESPN

ESPN did a feature on backup QBs who have stepped in for injured starters, and featured Zach Collaros.

Pike not ready, Collaros to start vs West Virginia

After stating on Monday that Tony Pike would start at QB for the Bearcats on Friday night against West Virigina if he was healthy, coach Brian Kelly announced today that Pike was not ready, so Zach Collaros will start instead. Since Collaros has played so well in relief, "it's allowed us now to set the bar a little bit higher for Tony in a sense that now we don't have to put him back there until he's 100 percent. He's not quite there yet." Kelly said.

Kelly said that Pike would get into the game is some capacity, but wouldn't disclose his role, saying he wanted to keep it a secret as "a tactical advantage." Regardless of who plays QB the Bearcats offense has operated at a consistently high level. For a team striving for a Big East title, undefeated season, and possible national championship game it's a nice problem to have.

Pike to start versus West Virginia

At his Tuesday afternoon press conference, Bearcats coach Brian Kelly indicated that Tony Pike will start at quarterback for UC against West Virginia this Friday, provided that he is healthy.

Kelly said that it was a difficult decision, but that he chose Pike because his entire body of work outweighs what Zach Collaros has done in relief the past 3 weeks.

I agree with this decision to a point. On one hand, a starter who is performing as well as Pike was before his injury should not lose his job because of injury. On the other hand, the team is on a roll and very comfortable with Collaros. I would hate to see another QB change disrupt team chemistry. I don't think it will.

What I would love to see is an offense like Florida used to run with Tim Tebow and Chris Leak where both Pike and Collaros would share time behind center. This would force defenses to game plan for both quarterbacks and switch tactics on the fly. You could even line both of them up side-by-side in the shotgun. The defense wouldn't know who was getting the ball. If it was Pike, Collaros is athletic enough to be an effective receiver out of the backfield. If Collaros took the snap, defenses wouldn't know if he was going to run or pass.

Brian Kelly has often been called an offensive genius. I can't see him completely benching Zach Collaros with the way he's played and the versatility he brings to the position. We will find out on Friday.

Cincinnati 47 Connecticut 45 Highlights

Some extended highlights from the #5 Bearcat's win Saturday night at Nippert.

Too close for comfort

UC escaped with a wild 47-45 win versus Connecticut on Saturday. In a weekend that saw #4 Iowa and #8 Oregon lose, Cincinnati was fortunate to get a win.

The atmosphere at Nippert stadium was excellent. As always, fans were asked to "come early, be loud, wear black" and they did all of those things. Playing in primetime on ABC made for an electric environment. However, as the game wore on and Connecticut kept coming up with big plays in the 2nd half, you could feel the energy ebb as fans grew nervous. After the game, it was reported, that Brian Kelly had to give his players a pep talk to remind them that they had won and should celebrate. Maybe the fans need a pep talk too. I've never seen a crowd depart a stadium in such a sullen mood after a win. Everyone has become so used to the Bearcats cruising to victory, that we weren't ready to enjoy a hard-fought win.

The UC offense was spectacular with 711 yards of total offense and no turnovers. Zach Collaros had a brilliant performance. Mardy Gilyard was unstoppable and Armon Binns continues to make teams pay for covering him one-on-one. Credit also has to go to Jake Rogers, who has been shaky at times. He was perfect and accounted for 17 points on 4 field goals and 5 extra points, some in pressure situations.

The defense looked good for a half, but Connecticut beat them up in the 2nd half. You have to give UConn credit--even down 20 in the 2nd half they never quit. This is a good team that has now lost 5 games by a combined 15 points. The Huskies have a huge offensive line--their smallest starter is 315 pounds--and a bruising fullback that wore down the smaller quicker Bearcats defense. Even from my seats in the upper deck I could tell that some of the Connecticut lineman were the size of a small mountain.

Even championship teams have some close games, and winning those games makes you better. "It was actually good for our guys," Kelly said. "Because we hadn't been in this kind of adversity all year." So now the players, and fans, have a short week to prepare for West Virginia on Friday, which struggled to get their offense going in a win over Louisville this weekend. I imagine it will be a spirited week of practice for the Bearcats. The close game against UConn should refocus the team and coaches, especially on defense, going into the final three games. It couldn't have come at a better time.

Games of the week

Besides the high rankings and national attention that UC has received, one big difference for me as a fan this season has been the fact that I am much more interested in the outcome of other top 25 games. In previous seasons, I rooted for teams in Big East games that impacted Cincinnati, but that was about it. Now I look at all the top teams, which has been fun.

So besides UC, what teams do Bearcat fans need to root for this weekend? The Bearcats are #5 in the BCS rankings, which is composed of #5 in Harris poll, #7 in coaches poll, #5 in computer rankings (5,5,7,5). Here are games that could affect Cincinnati's standings in the polls and computer rankings

-Boise State (7,4,5,8) @ Louisiana Tech--Boise is becoming less of a threat to bump UC, as their weak schedule is causing their computer ranking to fall.

-Syracuse @ Pittsburgh (13,15,14,14)--Pitt, like UC, needs to keep winning to help raise the stature of the Big East in the eyes of voters.

-Texas (2,2,2,3) @ Central Florida--A loss by any of the other undefeated teams helps UC. This would be a huge one, but is unlikely.

-Iowa (4,7,6,2) @ Northwestern--Iowa is a huge threat to UC. If only 3 teams go undefeated and Iowa and Cincy are two of them, Iowa likely gets the nod over UC for the chance to play for the national championship. This is a game that Iowa should win, but they haven't dominated anybody and anything can happen in conference play.

-Oregon (8,8,8,8) @ Stanford--Oregon is hot right now and attracting a lot of attention. Their loss to Boise State will keep them behind Boise and UC, for now.

-Alabama (3,3,3,2) @ LSU (9,9,9,9)--This game could have a huge impact on the national championship. If LSU wins out it would knock both Florida and Alabama out of contention for a spot in the title game, and open a spot for a non-SEC team, unless LSU leapfrogs everyone for the spot.

-TCU (6,6,4,6) @ San Diego State--TCU has been coming on like a freight train, and thanks to alot of love from the coaches (which UC doesn't get), trails the Bearcats by only 0.002 points in the BCS standings.

- Florida (1,1,1,1) @ Vanderbilt--Like Texas, Florida isn't likely to lose this one, but it would really open things up if they did.

ABC Coverage Map for Connecticut @ Cincinnati

It seems that ABC is making UConn @ UC their top game Saturday night.  They are sending their #1 broadcast team of Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit, & Lisa Salters to Nippert to cover the game. 

Here is the coverage map for the game. 

While it seems the UC game is being shown to a small percentage of the country geographically, on a population basis, 46% of the country will get UConn @ Cincy, 35% will see Oklahoma @ Nebraska, and 19% will get USC @ Arizona State.  Not bad, but I would like for more voters and fans in SEC and Big 10 country to see the UC game.  UC needs a strong performance on a national stage to overcome the bias in the polls.

Cincinnati Football Tickets available

The UConn @ Cincinnati game this Saturday at 8pm was originally listed as a sellout, but UConn has returned their allotment, so tickets are now available.

Tickets can be purchased online at www.CATSTIX.com, by phone at 1-877-CATS-TIX, or in person at the Athletics Ticket Office in the Richard E. Lindner Athletics Center in Varsity Village. It's going to be a beautiful night for football. Let's sell this out for the national TV audience.

In addition, UC has received their allotment of tickets for the final game of the season at Pitt. This game may decide the Big East championship and possibly UC's undefeated season. These tickets may be ordered by calling 1-877-CATS-TIX, Monday-Friday, 8 a.m. through 6 p.m. Tickets are only $30 and its only a 4.5 hour drive (287 miles) from the UC campus to Heinz field in Pittsburgh. If you don't want to drive, UC is offering two bus trips through Provident travel. One is an overnighter, the other is not. Details are here.

I already have my tickets and would love to see Bearcat fans buy the entire allotment we've been given and more. Additional tickets are still available for $30 through the Pitt website. Let's make this a home game!!