Bearcats back on track? Maybe.

Due to a hellish 10 days at work and the loss to Fresno State that left me speechless, I haven't posted in a while.  Regarding the Fresno State game:  I was stunned at how bad we looked.  I expected the offense to pickup where it left off and for the defense to struggle.  Boy was I wrong.  The defense actually looked pretty good, especially against the run, and the offense looked horrible. 

Fresno State recorded 8 sacks after getting only 11 all of last year (ranked 119/120 teams), plus had many more QB hits and hurries.  Some of this was Zach Collaros fault for holding the ball too long, and trying to make too many plays with his feet when he should have thrown it away, but much of it was the offensive lines fault.  Center Jason Kelce stated that the problem wasn't that the line was being man-handled, as it appeared, but rather that "There were a lot of mental breakdowns, which can't happen.  That's the number one thing in football. Everyone has to be on the same page, especially on the offensive line. If guys aren't on the same page, bad things are going to happen."  Zach Collaros often looked lost.  The wide receivers seldom were open.  The running game barely averaged 2 yards per carry.  Adding injury to insult was the loss of WR Vidal Hazleton to a torn ACL.

Against Indiana State, a far inferior team, things didn't start any better.  UC led only 12-7 at halftime, as the offense again looked inept.  One of the stars of the team, WR DJ Woods, lost 2 fumbles and had an unsportsmanlike penalty against him.  The passing game was again mediocre.  I don't know if its the new system, or the pressure of being the full-time starter, but it's was hard to believe Collaros is the same guy who won 4 starts in relief of Tony Pike last season.  UC blew the game open in the 3rd quarter with 4 touchdowns, but much of the output came from the running game.  The 4th quarter was scoreless with reserves getting reps. 

I would have like to see UC throw more even when they had the lead.  It would have given the offensive line a chance to work on their pass blocking a little more.  It's not time to hit the panic button yet, but certainly things need to start clicking soon.  UC is at NC State on Thursday and will provide a much stiffer test than Indiana State.  UC then has 9 days to prepare to host top 10 Oklahoma.  The Bearcats could get embarrassed if they don't get their offensive woes behind them soon.

Cincinnati @ Fresno State: Keys to the game

Cincinnati travels to "the doghouse" as a 2.5 point underdog versus Fresno State.  Since 1990 Fresno State has won 78% of their non-conference games at Bulldog Stadium, which seats 41,000.  The place is sure to be packed with a rowdy crowd anxious to beat a BCS opponent.  Fortunately UC has experience with this as they went into Corvallis, Washington last year for a rare win at Oregon State.

In last season's 28-20 UC victory, the Bulldogs ran the ball for 290 yards, which allowed them to hold the ball (and keep UC's offense off the field) for nearly 45 minutes.  Expect more of the same this year.  Gone is RB Ryan Mathews to the NFL, but he is replaced by Robbie Rouse who is only 5-7, but a solid 185 pounds.  Last year against the Bearcats, Rouse had 5 carries for 50 yards.  Even more daunting is the fact that Fresno State returns all 5 starters on the offensive line (and 18 starters total) from last years team.  In addition to the running game, Fresno State boasts as experienced senior quarterback and wide receiver.  I expect them to test UC's pass defense early to keep the defense off balance and setup the run.

If there is one weakness for Fresno State it is their defensive backs.  Two senior starters are gone and are replaced with two sophomores who have never started a game.  Expect Zach Collaros and company to take advantage.

For Cincinnati, they need to take what Fresno State gives them and not hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If they do that, I don't think the Fresno State defense can stop them.  Fresno State's best chance is a repeat of last year's game plan:  run, run, and run some more so that the UC offense doesn't get many opportunites.  UC's reconfigured 4-3 defense will need to do a better job of stuffing the run than last year's 3-4 did.  If they can get off the field, UC should win this game.  Both team's are strong offensively, but UC's is better.  If the defense can hold up, I don't see Fresno State matching the Bearcats score for score.

I don't think the score will be as close the what some of the experts are predicting.  I expect UC to pull away and win fairly easily.  My prediction:  34-23.

Defensive Deficiency? I Disagree.

Alot has been made of the high score posted by Connecticut in Cincinnati's 47-45 win last Saturday. Varied sites are saying things like UConn "picked apart" the UC defense, and that the game "exposed the warts, moles and scar tissue on the Big East's beauty queen". It has led to one writer from Foxsports picking West Virginia as his "Upset pick of the week" at the end of this article.

I disagree.

The belief is that the large, physical UConn offensive line wore down the smaller, quicker UC defense with their grind-it-out style of play. That would probably mean a huge time of possession advantage for UConn (similar to the Fresno State game), right? Um no. Actually UC led time of possession 32:45 to 27:15. A few long, sustained UConn drives that wore down the defense? No again. Connecticut had only one scoring drive greater than 2 minutes in the 2nd half (6:42) and only 2 in the 1st half (4:36 & 4:25).

So what's the problem then? Very simply, UConn made some very big plays in the 2nd half. Jordan Todman had a 46-yd TD run, Robert McClain had an 87-yd TD punt return, and Zach Frazer completed a 52-yd pass to Khalif Moore that setup a 1-yd run by Todman. Those 3 drives took 0:41, 0:00, and 1:30, respectively. They accounted for 22 of UConn's 35 second half points. Without those big plays, UConn still might have scored, but it would have taken more time and prevented them from having the number of possessions needed to get back into the game.

The Cincinnati defense made mistakes, but it is not a hidden flaw that has been exposed. It's a few missed assignments that gave way to the big play and a couple of big plays often result in an upset. "Everything that happened can be fixed. It was just one guy out of position here, two guys out of position there." Bearcats linebacker Marcus Waugh said. The UC defense has generally not been burned by big plays prior to the UConn game. I am sure that the defense and special teams had a good week of practice and are eager to prove that last week's game was a fluke.

While a big, physical offensive attack isn't an ideal matchup for the Bearcats defense, they proved against Fresno State that they can win against it. This week's matchup against West Virginia features an offense that relies more on speed than power, which should be a more favorable matchup for UC.