Bearcat vs UConn preview

It's going to be a long day.  I can hardly wait for tipoff, but as the last game of the day (9:40 pm)  it's going to be a long wait.  It's going to be a tough game, but I really like the Bearcats chances.  Cincinnati has not been getting a lot of attention, even after their big win over Missouri, and are once again the underdog.  That's fine with me.  Mick Cronin and the players will use it as additional motivation.  There's a great article about it on SI.com.

I'm curious to see how Cronin chooses to approach this game.  Will the Bearcats sit back in their half-court defense, or will they press?  Man-to-man or zone?  I can't wait to find out.  Here's some additional game previews to get you through the day from ESPN.  Try this one and this one.

Bearcats get a great win over Mizzou

What a great game!  I was worried about how Cincinnati would fare against Missouri's fast paced offense and full-court pressure, but they proved up to the task.  The Bearcats came out with great intensity and played awesome defense to hold the #9 scoring team in the nation 18 points below their average on under 40 percent shooting.  UC only turned the ball over 11 times against a press that forces an average of 18 a game.  Mick Conin had this team ready to play and it showed.  As the Bearcats gained control and then took the lead in the 1st half, some of the players looked possessed.  Missouri was not prepared for the Bearcats tenacious defense or their physical play and the Bearcats outmuscled them inside offensively and on the glass.  A great all around win.

Now UC faces UConn.  The advantages of this matchup is that Cincinnati knows their opponent well and has extra incentive to avenge a regular-season loss.  This disadvantage is that their opponent knows them.  I had hoped that UC would avoid facing a Big East team early on, because most teams aren't used to the physical style of play characteristic of the Big East.  UConn is hot right now and full of confidence.  Hopefully the mental and physical drain of playing 5 games in 5 days will start to catch up to them.  If UC comes out with the same intensity they showed last night, they can win.

Thoughts on UC as a 6 seed

When the brackets were announced on Sunday, I was happy and slightly surprised that UC got a 6 seed.  I think they deserve a 6, but thought the committee would give them a 7.  What I am not happy with is their matchup. 

Missouri is no 11 seed.  Their RPI isn't far behind the Bearcats and they went 0.500 in a major conference.  They are more like an 8 or 9 in my opinion.  The other 6 seeds are St. Johns, Georgetown, & Xavier, and they are matched up against Gonzaga, the USC/VCU play-in winner, & Marquette, repectively.  One could argue that Xavier's draw is as tought as UC's, but I think Cincinnati's is just a little tougher, while Georgetown got the easiest of the bunch.

If the Bearcats can get past the Tigers, UConn potentially awaits.  UConn beat UC this season at Fifth Third Arena and are red-hot and full of confidence coming off their Big East Tournament Championship.  Hopefully they will be out of gas as well.

It's a tough draw to be sure, but one that UC can win if they come out with intensity and play smart basketball.  In their first trip back to the dance since 2005, it sure would be nice to play two (or more).

Where will the Bearcats land

It's a foregone conclusion that the Bearcats will be included in this years NCAA tournament when the field is announced at 6 pm Sunday night.  The only question is where UC will be seeded.  They have a better record than many of the teams ahead of them in the polls.  If the selection committee gives UC the same lack of respect as the pollsters, they could get a poorer seed than they deserve.  If they take their strong finish to the season into account, they could get a better seed.

So what do the "bracketologists" say?  ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects the field with UC as a #7, playing Tennessee in the first round.  After the Bearcats loss to Notre Dame, Lunardi had UC as a #6.  Not sure what happened over night to change that.  Jordan Schwartz at Foxsports has UC as #6 playing Utah State--a matchup I like.  Jerry Palm at CBS Sports is the biggest surprise, with the Bearcats as a #5 playing Michigan.

Personally I think UC will be a 7, with an outside shot of a 6 or 8.  I am really hoping for a 6 or better.  The 7 & 8 seeded teams have tough first round matchups and then usually have to face a #1 or #2 seed.  If the Cincinnati can get a 5 or 6 I think they have an excellent chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.  We'll know in less than an hour.

Time to move on

After their crushing defeat versus Notre Dame on Thursday, its time for UC to forget it and move on.  Notre Dame played a perfect game where all their shots were falling, while the Bearcats were not.  In the first half Notre Dame shot the lights out from 3-point range to loosen up the UC defense.  In the second half they used screens and back door cuts executed to perfection to get easy layups.  The way Notre Dame played I thought they were a lock to win the Big East tournament and get a #1 seed in March Madness.  But against Louisville their shooting came back to earth and they played just an average game and lost.

For the Bearcats there are two ways they could respond to this loss:  They could question their play and their defense and come out flat and tentative in their next game, or they could re-focus and play determined to show everyone that they are a good team that plays great defense.  I think the latter will occur.  They need to move forward and put the ND game in their rearview mirrow, and just look forward to finding out their seed and matchup on Selection Sunday tonight, and start preparing for their opponent.  It's been a fun season and its not over yet!

Bearcats back on track? Maybe.

Due to a hellish 10 days at work and the loss to Fresno State that left me speechless, I haven't posted in a while.  Regarding the Fresno State game:  I was stunned at how bad we looked.  I expected the offense to pickup where it left off and for the defense to struggle.  Boy was I wrong.  The defense actually looked pretty good, especially against the run, and the offense looked horrible. 

Fresno State recorded 8 sacks after getting only 11 all of last year (ranked 119/120 teams), plus had many more QB hits and hurries.  Some of this was Zach Collaros fault for holding the ball too long, and trying to make too many plays with his feet when he should have thrown it away, but much of it was the offensive lines fault.  Center Jason Kelce stated that the problem wasn't that the line was being man-handled, as it appeared, but rather that "There were a lot of mental breakdowns, which can't happen.  That's the number one thing in football. Everyone has to be on the same page, especially on the offensive line. If guys aren't on the same page, bad things are going to happen."  Zach Collaros often looked lost.  The wide receivers seldom were open.  The running game barely averaged 2 yards per carry.  Adding injury to insult was the loss of WR Vidal Hazleton to a torn ACL.

Against Indiana State, a far inferior team, things didn't start any better.  UC led only 12-7 at halftime, as the offense again looked inept.  One of the stars of the team, WR DJ Woods, lost 2 fumbles and had an unsportsmanlike penalty against him.  The passing game was again mediocre.  I don't know if its the new system, or the pressure of being the full-time starter, but it's was hard to believe Collaros is the same guy who won 4 starts in relief of Tony Pike last season.  UC blew the game open in the 3rd quarter with 4 touchdowns, but much of the output came from the running game.  The 4th quarter was scoreless with reserves getting reps. 

I would have like to see UC throw more even when they had the lead.  It would have given the offensive line a chance to work on their pass blocking a little more.  It's not time to hit the panic button yet, but certainly things need to start clicking soon.  UC is at NC State on Thursday and will provide a much stiffer test than Indiana State.  UC then has 9 days to prepare to host top 10 Oklahoma.  The Bearcats could get embarrassed if they don't get their offensive woes behind them soon.

Cincinnati @ Fresno State: Keys to the game

Cincinnati travels to "the doghouse" as a 2.5 point underdog versus Fresno State.  Since 1990 Fresno State has won 78% of their non-conference games at Bulldog Stadium, which seats 41,000.  The place is sure to be packed with a rowdy crowd anxious to beat a BCS opponent.  Fortunately UC has experience with this as they went into Corvallis, Washington last year for a rare win at Oregon State.

In last season's 28-20 UC victory, the Bulldogs ran the ball for 290 yards, which allowed them to hold the ball (and keep UC's offense off the field) for nearly 45 minutes.  Expect more of the same this year.  Gone is RB Ryan Mathews to the NFL, but he is replaced by Robbie Rouse who is only 5-7, but a solid 185 pounds.  Last year against the Bearcats, Rouse had 5 carries for 50 yards.  Even more daunting is the fact that Fresno State returns all 5 starters on the offensive line (and 18 starters total) from last years team.  In addition to the running game, Fresno State boasts as experienced senior quarterback and wide receiver.  I expect them to test UC's pass defense early to keep the defense off balance and setup the run.

If there is one weakness for Fresno State it is their defensive backs.  Two senior starters are gone and are replaced with two sophomores who have never started a game.  Expect Zach Collaros and company to take advantage.

For Cincinnati, they need to take what Fresno State gives them and not hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If they do that, I don't think the Fresno State defense can stop them.  Fresno State's best chance is a repeat of last year's game plan:  run, run, and run some more so that the UC offense doesn't get many opportunites.  UC's reconfigured 4-3 defense will need to do a better job of stuffing the run than last year's 3-4 did.  If they can get off the field, UC should win this game.  Both team's are strong offensively, but UC's is better.  If the defense can hold up, I don't see Fresno State matching the Bearcats score for score.

I don't think the score will be as close the what some of the experts are predicting.  I expect UC to pull away and win fairly easily.  My prediction:  34-23.

Say What??? - Experts Predictions

The two-time defending Big East Champion Bearcats aren't getting alot of respect in the preseason, with most experts picking someone other than the men in red and black to win the Big East title this year.  I'm sure Butch Jones and the players are using the lack of respect as motivation to prove everyone wrong....again.

UC is unranked in the AP and Coaches poll's, coming in at #26 in the voting in each.  Some other predictions:

• ESPN's Brian Bennett:  Pitt wins Big East, UC "most likely to disappoint"
• ESPN's 2010 predictions:  Of 12 "experts", 7 pick Pitt to win the Big East, 3 pick UConn, 2 pick UC.
• Sports Illustrated's 2010 Crystal Ball:  None of the experts picked UC to win the Big East:  5 picked Pitt, 1 W.Va., 1 UConn.
• Tailgate365: Picks UConn to win the Big East, UC 3rd.
• Whatifsports, a computer simulation site, picks UC to finish 2nd to Pitt in the Big East with a 9-3 overall record.
• Foxsports Big East Preview:  Big East title will come down to Pitt or W.Va.
• Sporting News Big East Predictions:  picks Pitt to win the conference

And what about tonight's game at Fresno State? 

• Las Vegas:  Most have the line favoring Fresno by 2.5.
• Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel:  Fresno 27 UC 22
• ESPN's Brian Bennett:  UC 35 Fresno 34
• Whatifsports, a computer simulation site, picks UC to win 71.9% of the time by an average score of 41-35
• Team Rankings another computer simulation site, predicts UC to beat Fresno just 52.4% of the time.
• Scout: UC 34 Fresno 30
• Sporting News:  Fresno 36 UC 33

Bearcats Preview: Defense

At the beginning of every season there are numerous questions.  For UC this is no exception.  Perhaps the biggest questions this year concern the defense.  Most pundits see the defense as the weak link that will hinder the Bearcat's quest for a 3rd straight Big East title.  Last year, Brian Kelly brought in Bob Diaco as defensive coordinator to switch UC from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.  The key to success in the 3-4 is huge lineman who can tie up a blocker or two to allow the linebackers to make plays.  Unfortunately, UC was not built to run the 3-4 and it showed.  Despite winning 12 regular season games, the defense was near statistically one of the worst in the Big East.

This season, Butch Jones and his staff have reverted to the 4-3 which allows for lineman to use their speed and athleticism to get past blockers.  This defense is a much better fit for the personnel on hand and hopefully will result in noticeable improvement over last season.  The biggest knock against this defense is that it only returns 5 starters.  With early tests against Fresno State, NC State, and Oklahoma, there better be a steep learning curve.

The defensive line is anchored by experienced junior Derek Wolfe at defensive tackle.  Joining him will be junior John Hughes.  At the ends will be sophomores Brandon Mills and Dan Giordano.  Both saw extensive playing time coming off the bench last season.

At linebacker, junior and veteran starter J.K. Schaffer anchors the group and will be joined by sophomores Walter Stewart, who started 12 games last season, and Maalik Bomar.  This position group is reportedly the most thin, in terms of talent and depth, on the team.  The starters will have to stay healthy and the backups will need to learn and improve quickly.

In the defensive backfield, junior CB Dominique Battle and sophomore S Drew Frye return, and are joined by sophomore CB Reuben Johnson and junior S Wesley Richardson.  Their backups are all freshman and sophomores, so this is another group that needs to stay healthy.

Last years defense had a hard time stopping the run and will be tested early by Fresno State.  According to reports from training camp, this years defense is more aggressive and holding its own against the offense.  In addition, they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder and something to prove to all the "experts" who have cited the defense as the reason the Bearcats will not 3-peat as Big East champs.

Bearcats win 45-44. Big East Champs!

This was the best game I have ever seen in person.  UC overcame a shaky first half and mounted a stunning comeback to shock Pittsburgh for the Big East Championship and automatic BCS bowl bid.  There were a ton of UC fans in the stands, and nobody wanted to leave when the game was over.  A great scene!

Games of interest to UC

If UC wins at Pitt, they will go to a BCS bowl, that much is certain, but with a little help they could go to the national championship game.  The Bearcats are currently #5 in the BCS standings, behind Florida, Alabama, Texas, and TCU.   UC should move ahead of the loser of the Florida-Alabama game.  They also need the following:

• Nebraska over Texas
• Oregon State over Oregon
• Georgia Tech over Clemson
  

A Texas loss is required to get UC into the title game.  The other two games help UC's computer numbers.  UC beat Oregon State on their field, while TCU's biggest win is against Clemson.  The proper outcome of those two games might not be required, but they would help.  The dominos may start to fall tonight when Oregon & Oregon State square off with the winner going to the Rose Bowl.

Brian Kelly says he's staying, but does he mean it?

One thing that has amazed me during all the Brian Kelly to Notre Dame hoopla is the fact that Kelly has never said that Notre Dame is his dream job.  Yet most "experts" say that if the job is offered, Kelly would take it in a heartbeat.

Fueling the speculation is the fact that while other high profile coaches have come out and said they aren't interested in the Notre Dame job, Kelly has kept mum.  Until now.

On WEBN's Dawn Patrol Kelly responded to Wildman Walker's question about his status saying "I'm staying man, I'm staying, why would I go?".  Later he reiterates "I'm very happy in Cincinnati and our kids love it here, our family loves it here.  We're just going to focus in, obviously, on building this program, getting it bigger and better..."

So there you have it.  Either Kelly is really staying at UC, or he is flat out lying.

Historic rankings

For the first time ever, the Cincinnati Bearcats basketball and football teams are ranked at the same time.  The football team remains at #5, while the basketball team debuted at #22 in the AP after their strong showing in the Maui Invitational.  They were last ranked in January 2006.

The Bearcats first game as a ranked team was a resounding 94-57 win over Texas Southern at Fifth Third arena.  Unfortunately, only 6,825 attended the game.  Hopefully support for the program will pick up soon.

Thoughts on Illinois win

I had hoped to post this sooner, but with the holiday weekend, life has been crazy.  Hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend.

Go to any college sports website and one of the first three stories will be about Notre Dame and/or Brian Kelly.  It's crazy right now.  I'll have more thoughts on that in a future post.

Notes on the Bearcats 49-36 win over the Fighting Illini:

• On a cold, clear day, Nippert was full and at times very loud.  It was a good crowd.
• When they make upgrades to Nippert, I hope they consider better hot pretzel technology.  It seems like they either run out or serve them cold and mushy.
• Tony Pike looked great.  He has a great arm and nice touch.  His 59-yd touchdown pass to TE Ben Guidugli was made while running to his left and throwing across his body.  It was at least 40 yards in the air.  On another long pass to Mardy Gilyard, the WR had only about a half-step on the cornerback, but Pike hit him perfectly in stride. 
• Apparently all the TEs in the Big Ten do is run-block or at least it seemed that way.  Illinois had no clue how to cover Ben Guidugli in the first half when he had 6 catches for 144 yards and two scores.  Pike often found him wide-open.
• Mardy Gilyard passed Dominick Goodman for the all-time TD leader in UC history.  He showed great vision and the ability to break some tackles on his 90-yd kickoff return TD.
• How's this for spreading the ball around:  Tony Pike completed passes to 8 different targets, with Gilyard, Guidulgi, Armon Binns, & DJ Woods each catching 7 passes.
• I was surprised UC didn't run the ball more.  Before the bye week Brian Kelly said they planned to work on the running game, but Illinois has a weak pass defense and Kelly is the master of taking what the defense gives him.  It was nice to see senior John Goebel, who been hurt most of the year, get in the game and get a few carries.
• The defense is becoming a concern.  They gave up 36 points on 476 yards of offense and will need to tighten up versus Pitt.  This is despite forcing 7 Illini punts.  The problem is that the offense scores so often and so quickly that the defense is on the field a lot, giving the opposing offense many scoring opportunities.

Happy Thanksgiving!

News and Notes:

• I started my Thanksgiving day by running in the 100th annual Thanksgiving Day 10k Race.  It's a Cincinnati tradition and remarkable to have a 100th annual anything.
• The Bearcats basketball team lost to Gonzaga 61-59 in an OT heartbreaker.  While the loss is disappointing, the team had a good showing with two wins over ranked opponents.
• Tony Pike returns as the starter tomorrow when the Bearcats take on Illinois at sold out Nippert Stadium at noon.  The team needs a decisive win for the nationally televised audience watching on ABC.  I'll be there and can hardly wait!
• I don't know much about Illinois except that they have been inconsistent and have a poor pass defense.  UC's high powered attack should be able to take advantage, and hopefully the defense can return to early season form.
• UC once again needs Texas, Alabama, or Florida to lose this weekend to have a shot at the national championship game.  That doesn't look likely as all are favored by double-digits, although Texas A&M is giving Texas a game right now.  UC should be able to pass TCU in the BCS standings based on their strength of schedule if they win out.
• Next weeks game at Pitt is at noon.  That makes it tough to road-trip up there the day of the game, but there are cheap hotels in the suburbs with vacancies Friday night and tickets are still available for $30.  This could be the biggest game in UC history.
• Speaking of Pitt tickets, I got mine in the mail yesterday.  I thought they might be decent since it was the block allocated to UC but actually they suck.  I will be in row GG of section 505 in the corner of the stadium.  Oh well, at least I'll be there.

Some non-football news, Bearcats basketball beats #24 Vanderbilt

With the excitement around the success of the football team, I haven't talked at all about the men's basketball team.  This year's team appears to be the most talented of the Mick Cronin era.  The past couple of seasons have led to some grumbling about whether Cronin is the man for the job, so with this level of talent anything less than a post-season appearance would be a disappointment that would fuel that fire.

After a lackluster opening win against Prarie View A&M and an easy win against an overmatched Toledo team, the Bearcats notched an impressive 67-58 victory over #24 Vanderbilt in the Maui Invitational.  The Bearcats didn't shoot well, but played a physical, high-intensity game and dominated Vanderbilt defensively and on the glass.  Video highlights are here.

This is a great win for UC, and could set the tone for a nice season.  Last year the team started with a good record, but was criticized for the cupcake schedule and didn't look ready for Big East play.  This season, they have a few more marquee matchups which should get them ready for conference play and help their resume come tournament selection time.  Another high-caliber matchup is tonight when the Bearcats take on #21 Maryland in the Maui Invitational semi-finals.  The game is on ESPN at 7pm eastern.

WVU@UC thoughts

Another game that was closer than it should have been, but a win is a win, and the Bearcats are 10-0 for the first time ever.  This is also the 3rd 10-win season in a row, after having only 1 prior to Brian Kelly's arrival.

• The fans arrived early, and Nippert was loud to start.  There were still times when the fans seem to sit on their hands when they should have been on their feet.  I frequently found that when WVU had a 3rd down, there were only a handful of people in my section on their feet screaming DE-FENSE. 
• I got a chance to sit in the student section for the start of the 2nd half and the energy there was incredible.  Hopefully the entire stadium will eventually be like that.
• I thought UC played their worst football of the year in the 1st half.  Turnovers, penalties, and missed opportunities abounded.
• Zach Collaros seemed off.  I don't know if its just that teams have some film and know how to defend him now, if its the pressure of having Tony Pike healthy and looking over his shoulder, or what, but he didn't see open receivers and made some bad throws, including a very uncharacteristic interception into double-coverage.
• I think the Isiah Peah stretch was a touchdown, but I'm surprised the call on the field was overturned.  The video replays that I've seen don't seem indisputable.  It was a stupid play.  It was 1st & goal early in the game.  No reason to risk a turnover as Pead did.
• Other than that, Pead had a FANTASTIC game.  He has speed and is shifty.  If the weather turns foul, UC will need to rely more on their running game.
• The defense didn't always look solid, but came up with the plays when they had to.
• I was impressed with the WVU fans at the game.  They had an excellent turnout and were very loud.  That being said, GO TO THE PITT GAME!!  Call 1-877-CATS-TIX to see if UC still has any of their allotment left, or buy tickets online thru Pitt.  Tickets are only $30 and its only a 4.5 hour drive.  A big turnout would help inspire the team and show the bowls that UC fans will travel.
• Extended highlights here:
  
  
  

The invasion has begun

I left work in downtown Cincinnati a little early today, and saw a lot of West Virginia fans checking into hotels and walking the streets wearing their WVU gear.

West Virginia fans travel well and this game sold out a long time ago, leading me to believe that many of those tickets were purchased by WVU fans. That was the case two years ago when the Mountaineers played at Nippert. I was at that game and would guess that at least 5,000 of the fans were cheering for WVU. Bearcat fans need to rise up and drown them out!

COME EARLY, BE LOUD, WEAR RED!!!

Some fan group are planning a "Brian Kelly" chant at the end of the first quarter. If you are there, join in!

Defensive Deficiency? I Disagree.

Alot has been made of the high score posted by Connecticut in Cincinnati's 47-45 win last Saturday. Varied sites are saying things like UConn "picked apart" the UC defense, and that the game "exposed the warts, moles and scar tissue on the Big East's beauty queen". It has led to one writer from Foxsports picking West Virginia as his "Upset pick of the week" at the end of this article.

I disagree.

The belief is that the large, physical UConn offensive line wore down the smaller, quicker UC defense with their grind-it-out style of play. That would probably mean a huge time of possession advantage for UConn (similar to the Fresno State game), right? Um no. Actually UC led time of possession 32:45 to 27:15. A few long, sustained UConn drives that wore down the defense? No again. Connecticut had only one scoring drive greater than 2 minutes in the 2nd half (6:42) and only 2 in the 1st half (4:36 & 4:25).

So what's the problem then? Very simply, UConn made some very big plays in the 2nd half. Jordan Todman had a 46-yd TD run, Robert McClain had an 87-yd TD punt return, and Zach Frazer completed a 52-yd pass to Khalif Moore that setup a 1-yd run by Todman. Those 3 drives took 0:41, 0:00, and 1:30, respectively. They accounted for 22 of UConn's 35 second half points. Without those big plays, UConn still might have scored, but it would have taken more time and prevented them from having the number of possessions needed to get back into the game.

The Cincinnati defense made mistakes, but it is not a hidden flaw that has been exposed. It's a few missed assignments that gave way to the big play and a couple of big plays often result in an upset. "Everything that happened can be fixed. It was just one guy out of position here, two guys out of position there." Bearcats linebacker Marcus Waugh said. The UC defense has generally not been burned by big plays prior to the UConn game. I am sure that the defense and special teams had a good week of practice and are eager to prove that last week's game was a fluke.

While a big, physical offensive attack isn't an ideal matchup for the Bearcats defense, they proved against Fresno State that they can win against it. This week's matchup against West Virginia features an offense that relies more on speed than power, which should be a more favorable matchup for UC.

Cincy Committed to Kelly

If you are on Facebook check out this group called "Cincy Committed to Kelly". They are selling red towels that read the same at locations around Cincinnati, and around campus prior to games.

The description from the group page says:
We've all seen how great of a coach Brian Kelly is. Let's show our support for him! Purchase a Cincy Committed to Kelly towel! All proceeds of your $3 donation benefits the Jefferson Sports Complex and the Down Syndrome Association of Cincinnati.

Thanks to our sponsors. Towels can be purchased at the following locations:
- Montgomery Inn Montgomery
- Montgomery Inn Boathouse
- Holy Grail in Clifton,
- Nothing but Net on Mt Caramel Tobasco Road
- Willie's Sports Cafe in Montgomery
- Willie's Sports Cafe Covington
- Kuhl's Hot Sports Spot - 7860 Beechmont Avenue
- Planet Collectibles inside the Beechmont Mall

A post on the group page also indicates that there will be a "Brian Kelly" chant at the end of the 1st quarter of tonight's game vs. West Virginia. If you are there, join in!