Cincinnati at NC State Preview

The Bearcats make their first nationally televised TV appearance tonight when they travel to Raleigh, NC to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack at 7:30 pm EST.  After a terrible game at Fresno State and a shaky first half versus Indiana State, UC needs a quality win, especially the offense which has not looked like the point producing powerhouse of the previous two seasons.

The key to the game will be the play of the offense line, which has not performed well thus far.  NC State likes to blitz, and after giving up 8 sacks at Fresno, the line will be tested early and often.  Zach Collaros will need to make quick decision and not hold the ball too long.  UC can neutralize the pass rush with a strong run game.  The Bearcats had 263 yards rushing against Indiana State without their #1 rusher, Isiah Pead, who sat out with a sore knee.  Pead will be back tonight and will need to be productive.

Another thing that has been missing this season is the big plays that characterized the offense the last two seasons.  This year, the Bearcats longest pass completion is only 29 yards.  Pead, Armon Binns, or DJ Woods need to break a long one early to get the momentum going in UC's favor.

NC State is not an offensive powerhouse, but stays in games because of its stout defense.  If UC can grab a lead, the NC State offense might not be able to catch up.

Bearcats back on track? Maybe.

Due to a hellish 10 days at work and the loss to Fresno State that left me speechless, I haven't posted in a while.  Regarding the Fresno State game:  I was stunned at how bad we looked.  I expected the offense to pickup where it left off and for the defense to struggle.  Boy was I wrong.  The defense actually looked pretty good, especially against the run, and the offense looked horrible. 

Fresno State recorded 8 sacks after getting only 11 all of last year (ranked 119/120 teams), plus had many more QB hits and hurries.  Some of this was Zach Collaros fault for holding the ball too long, and trying to make too many plays with his feet when he should have thrown it away, but much of it was the offensive lines fault.  Center Jason Kelce stated that the problem wasn't that the line was being man-handled, as it appeared, but rather that "There were a lot of mental breakdowns, which can't happen.  That's the number one thing in football. Everyone has to be on the same page, especially on the offensive line. If guys aren't on the same page, bad things are going to happen."  Zach Collaros often looked lost.  The wide receivers seldom were open.  The running game barely averaged 2 yards per carry.  Adding injury to insult was the loss of WR Vidal Hazleton to a torn ACL.

Against Indiana State, a far inferior team, things didn't start any better.  UC led only 12-7 at halftime, as the offense again looked inept.  One of the stars of the team, WR DJ Woods, lost 2 fumbles and had an unsportsmanlike penalty against him.  The passing game was again mediocre.  I don't know if its the new system, or the pressure of being the full-time starter, but it's was hard to believe Collaros is the same guy who won 4 starts in relief of Tony Pike last season.  UC blew the game open in the 3rd quarter with 4 touchdowns, but much of the output came from the running game.  The 4th quarter was scoreless with reserves getting reps. 

I would have like to see UC throw more even when they had the lead.  It would have given the offensive line a chance to work on their pass blocking a little more.  It's not time to hit the panic button yet, but certainly things need to start clicking soon.  UC is at NC State on Thursday and will provide a much stiffer test than Indiana State.  UC then has 9 days to prepare to host top 10 Oklahoma.  The Bearcats could get embarrassed if they don't get their offensive woes behind them soon.

Thoughts on Illinois win

I had hoped to post this sooner, but with the holiday weekend, life has been crazy.  Hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend.

Go to any college sports website and one of the first three stories will be about Notre Dame and/or Brian Kelly.  It's crazy right now.  I'll have more thoughts on that in a future post.

Notes on the Bearcats 49-36 win over the Fighting Illini:

• On a cold, clear day, Nippert was full and at times very loud.  It was a good crowd.
• When they make upgrades to Nippert, I hope they consider better hot pretzel technology.  It seems like they either run out or serve them cold and mushy.
• Tony Pike looked great.  He has a great arm and nice touch.  His 59-yd touchdown pass to TE Ben Guidugli was made while running to his left and throwing across his body.  It was at least 40 yards in the air.  On another long pass to Mardy Gilyard, the WR had only about a half-step on the cornerback, but Pike hit him perfectly in stride. 
• Apparently all the TEs in the Big Ten do is run-block or at least it seemed that way.  Illinois had no clue how to cover Ben Guidugli in the first half when he had 6 catches for 144 yards and two scores.  Pike often found him wide-open.
• Mardy Gilyard passed Dominick Goodman for the all-time TD leader in UC history.  He showed great vision and the ability to break some tackles on his 90-yd kickoff return TD.
• How's this for spreading the ball around:  Tony Pike completed passes to 8 different targets, with Gilyard, Guidulgi, Armon Binns, & DJ Woods each catching 7 passes.
• I was surprised UC didn't run the ball more.  Before the bye week Brian Kelly said they planned to work on the running game, but Illinois has a weak pass defense and Kelly is the master of taking what the defense gives him.  It was nice to see senior John Goebel, who been hurt most of the year, get in the game and get a few carries.
• The defense is becoming a concern.  They gave up 36 points on 476 yards of offense and will need to tighten up versus Pitt.  This is despite forcing 7 Illini punts.  The problem is that the offense scores so often and so quickly that the defense is on the field a lot, giving the opposing offense many scoring opportunities.

UC @ USF - Keys to the game for UC & prediction

Cincinnati faces a big test against a good team in a hostile environment. To come away with the win against South Florida, the Bearcats need to:

1. Take the crowd out of it--If the offense can get some early scores and the defense some early stops, the Bulls homefield advantage would be minimized.

2. Neutralize the pass rush--USF features a very talented defensive line. Quick passes and a rolling pocket will help take the pressure off Tony Pike. UC could also run a bit more than usual to keep the D-line on their heels.

3. Take what the defense give you--Miami (OH) very effectively double-teamed Mardy Gilyard. If USF does the same the Bearcats need to be patient, not force the ball, and look for one of their other playmakers. Could be a big night for DJ Woods, Armon Binns, or Isiah Pead.

4. Get off the field--The defense has been great on 1st and 2nd downs, but not so much on 3rd, with opponents converting nearly 50 percent of the time. The defense needs to get stops and get off the field so the offense can get the ball and have a more balanced time of possession.

My prediction: Bearcats lead throughout, and its close at the half, but in the end UC just has more talent and pulls away.
Cincinnati 31 South Florida 20