Cincinnati at NC State Preview

The Bearcats make their first nationally televised TV appearance tonight when they travel to Raleigh, NC to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack at 7:30 pm EST.  After a terrible game at Fresno State and a shaky first half versus Indiana State, UC needs a quality win, especially the offense which has not looked like the point producing powerhouse of the previous two seasons.

The key to the game will be the play of the offense line, which has not performed well thus far.  NC State likes to blitz, and after giving up 8 sacks at Fresno, the line will be tested early and often.  Zach Collaros will need to make quick decision and not hold the ball too long.  UC can neutralize the pass rush with a strong run game.  The Bearcats had 263 yards rushing against Indiana State without their #1 rusher, Isiah Pead, who sat out with a sore knee.  Pead will be back tonight and will need to be productive.

Another thing that has been missing this season is the big plays that characterized the offense the last two seasons.  This year, the Bearcats longest pass completion is only 29 yards.  Pead, Armon Binns, or DJ Woods need to break a long one early to get the momentum going in UC's favor.

NC State is not an offensive powerhouse, but stays in games because of its stout defense.  If UC can grab a lead, the NC State offense might not be able to catch up.

Thoughts on Illinois win

I had hoped to post this sooner, but with the holiday weekend, life has been crazy.  Hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend.

Go to any college sports website and one of the first three stories will be about Notre Dame and/or Brian Kelly.  It's crazy right now.  I'll have more thoughts on that in a future post.

Notes on the Bearcats 49-36 win over the Fighting Illini:

• On a cold, clear day, Nippert was full and at times very loud.  It was a good crowd.
• When they make upgrades to Nippert, I hope they consider better hot pretzel technology.  It seems like they either run out or serve them cold and mushy.
• Tony Pike looked great.  He has a great arm and nice touch.  His 59-yd touchdown pass to TE Ben Guidugli was made while running to his left and throwing across his body.  It was at least 40 yards in the air.  On another long pass to Mardy Gilyard, the WR had only about a half-step on the cornerback, but Pike hit him perfectly in stride. 
• Apparently all the TEs in the Big Ten do is run-block or at least it seemed that way.  Illinois had no clue how to cover Ben Guidugli in the first half when he had 6 catches for 144 yards and two scores.  Pike often found him wide-open.
• Mardy Gilyard passed Dominick Goodman for the all-time TD leader in UC history.  He showed great vision and the ability to break some tackles on his 90-yd kickoff return TD.
• How's this for spreading the ball around:  Tony Pike completed passes to 8 different targets, with Gilyard, Guidulgi, Armon Binns, & DJ Woods each catching 7 passes.
• I was surprised UC didn't run the ball more.  Before the bye week Brian Kelly said they planned to work on the running game, but Illinois has a weak pass defense and Kelly is the master of taking what the defense gives him.  It was nice to see senior John Goebel, who been hurt most of the year, get in the game and get a few carries.
• The defense is becoming a concern.  They gave up 36 points on 476 yards of offense and will need to tighten up versus Pitt.  This is despite forcing 7 Illini punts.  The problem is that the offense scores so often and so quickly that the defense is on the field a lot, giving the opposing offense many scoring opportunities.

Too close for comfort

UC escaped with a wild 47-45 win versus Connecticut on Saturday. In a weekend that saw #4 Iowa and #8 Oregon lose, Cincinnati was fortunate to get a win.

The atmosphere at Nippert stadium was excellent. As always, fans were asked to "come early, be loud, wear black" and they did all of those things. Playing in primetime on ABC made for an electric environment. However, as the game wore on and Connecticut kept coming up with big plays in the 2nd half, you could feel the energy ebb as fans grew nervous. After the game, it was reported, that Brian Kelly had to give his players a pep talk to remind them that they had won and should celebrate. Maybe the fans need a pep talk too. I've never seen a crowd depart a stadium in such a sullen mood after a win. Everyone has become so used to the Bearcats cruising to victory, that we weren't ready to enjoy a hard-fought win.

The UC offense was spectacular with 711 yards of total offense and no turnovers. Zach Collaros had a brilliant performance. Mardy Gilyard was unstoppable and Armon Binns continues to make teams pay for covering him one-on-one. Credit also has to go to Jake Rogers, who has been shaky at times. He was perfect and accounted for 17 points on 4 field goals and 5 extra points, some in pressure situations.

The defense looked good for a half, but Connecticut beat them up in the 2nd half. You have to give UConn credit--even down 20 in the 2nd half they never quit. This is a good team that has now lost 5 games by a combined 15 points. The Huskies have a huge offensive line--their smallest starter is 315 pounds--and a bruising fullback that wore down the smaller quicker Bearcats defense. Even from my seats in the upper deck I could tell that some of the Connecticut lineman were the size of a small mountain.

Even championship teams have some close games, and winning those games makes you better. "It was actually good for our guys," Kelly said. "Because we hadn't been in this kind of adversity all year." So now the players, and fans, have a short week to prepare for West Virginia on Friday, which struggled to get their offense going in a win over Louisville this weekend. I imagine it will be a spirited week of practice for the Bearcats. The close game against UConn should refocus the team and coaches, especially on defense, going into the final three games. It couldn't have come at a better time.

Post-game thoughts on Cincinnati @ South Florida

It was a great win for the Bearcats, despite the injury to Tony Pike. As I said earlier, I think the ability to win without Pike showed the Bearcat's depth and versatility and the genius of coach Brian Kelly to succesfully adapt his offense to fit the situation and personnel.

I previously listed my keys to the game. So how did UC do?:

1. Take the crowd out of it--UC did not do a great job of this, as they even fell behind early. The crowd didn't quiet down until Zach Collaros stunned them with his 75 yard run, but then he charged them back up again with his interception. Despite the noise and frenzy, the Bearcats didn't get rattled.

2. Neutralize the pass rush--UC did a pretty good job of this. Bearcats left tackle Jeff Linkenbach held his own against George Selvie. Jason Pierre-Paul caused some problems, and of course Tony Pike took some hits.

3. Take what the defense give you--this is a Brian Kelly specialty. Mardy Gilyard was not a major factor in the game, instead Armon Binns had two TDs and is emerging as another nice weapon in the Cincinnati arsenal.

4. Get off the field--the Bearcats defense was hugely improved in this area. USF converted only 4 of 16 third downs and held the ball for only 28:42 versus UCs 31:18.

UC @ USF - Keys to the game for UC & prediction

Cincinnati faces a big test against a good team in a hostile environment. To come away with the win against South Florida, the Bearcats need to:

1. Take the crowd out of it--If the offense can get some early scores and the defense some early stops, the Bulls homefield advantage would be minimized.

2. Neutralize the pass rush--USF features a very talented defensive line. Quick passes and a rolling pocket will help take the pressure off Tony Pike. UC could also run a bit more than usual to keep the D-line on their heels.

3. Take what the defense give you--Miami (OH) very effectively double-teamed Mardy Gilyard. If USF does the same the Bearcats need to be patient, not force the ball, and look for one of their other playmakers. Could be a big night for DJ Woods, Armon Binns, or Isiah Pead.

4. Get off the field--The defense has been great on 1st and 2nd downs, but not so much on 3rd, with opponents converting nearly 50 percent of the time. The defense needs to get stops and get off the field so the offense can get the ball and have a more balanced time of possession.

My prediction: Bearcats lead throughout, and its close at the half, but in the end UC just has more talent and pulls away.
Cincinnati 31 South Florida 20