#8 Cincinnati at #21 South Florida Preview

When the #8 Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Tampa Bay to take on the #21 South Florida Bulls Thursday night it will be the biggest game of the season for both teams. Alot is riding on this game, both for the teams and the Big East Conference. For the teams, its a chance to take sole possession of first place in the Big East. While both teams have some tough games ahead, both will likely be favored in every remaining game, so the stakes in this one are huge. This is the game that could decide the Big East (of course West Virginia, Pitt, & UConn might disagree). The Bearcats want to show that they belong in the top 10 and maybe even the national championship discussion, while the Bulls want to show that they can play well consistently after starting 5-0 the last two season followed by several in conference losses.

For the Big East Conference, this game is a chance to gain some respect by showing off two quality football teams before a national television audience (ESPN).

This should be a great game as each team matches strength against strength. The Bearcats offense ranks 6th nationally in pass offense (329.8 yds/gm) while the Bulls defense has the best pass defense in the Big East (158.2 yds/gm). UC ranks #3 in scoring at 42 points per game, while the USF defense is #5 in points allowed at 9.5 points per game. The Bulls defense, led by former UC defensive coordinator Joe Tresey, has 16 take-aways, while the UC offense has only turned the ball over 3 times this season. USF has two potential first round NFL draft picks in DEs George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul, while the Bearcats offensive line has only given up 3 sacks all season.

Despite the apparent statistical stalemate, I think the Bearcats have the edge here. This is by far the most talented team South Florida has faced. QB Tony Pike has a terrific grasp of the offense, a quick release, and great accuracy. The no-huddle, spread offense should wear down the USF defense as the game goes on. Plus, this isn't just the Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard show. UC has offensive touchdowns scored by 10 different players this season, and in the end that is just too many weapons for South Florida to stop.

Not as much has been made about the matchup between the South Florida offense and Cincinnati defense, but this is another area where I think Cincinnati has the edge. Again, this will be the most talented defense USF has faced. For Cincinnati, the Bulls probably are the best passing offense they have faced, so this could be a test for the secondary. The Bearcats run defense has faced two of the top running backs in the nation, but still rank 25th in the nation, yielding just over 100 yards per game, and should be able to handle USF on the ground.

For the Bulls, QB BJ Daniels has done a great job stepping in for injured Matt Groethe. He's a dual threat to run or pass, which could cause headaches for Cincy. The Bearcats however, lead the nation in tackles for loss (10 per game) and sacks (4.2 per game) and should be able to get to Daniels against an average Bulls offensive line.

Scary Stat of the Week

Stewart Mandel writing his College Football Mailbag column a couple of weeks ago on CNNSI.com noted that Thursday night games have become a trap for highly ranked teams.

He cites the fact that since the start of last season, 8 favored teams have lost to the underdog, and 7 of those times the favored team was on the road.

He goes on to say "you'd be absolutely nuts to agree to play a Thursday night road game on ESPN" and asks "Why would any visiting coach in his right mind walk willingly into that death trap?"

Even though this suggests that history is against the Bearcats, it seems to me that over the past few seasons the team has performed incredibly well in nationally televised games. I was looking for a stat on this but can't find one, but did find that under Brian Kelly the Bearcats are 15-3 on the road and 14-3 in night games. Kelly will have the team ready to play, and won't allow them to fall victim to the Thursday night trap.

Brian Kelly on College Football Live

Here's another appearance by Brian Kelly while he was at ESPN studios. This one is on College Football Live.

Tony Pike interview

I hate bye weeks.  Not sure what to do with myself with no game today. 
Here's an interview with Tony Pike on ESPN from earlier this week:

Brian Kelly on ESPN First Take

You can also watch this here.