Saturday, September 4, 2010

Cincinnati @ Fresno State: Keys to the game

Cincinnati travels to "the doghouse" as a 2.5 point underdog versus Fresno State.  Since 1990 Fresno State has won 78% of their non-conference games at Bulldog Stadium, which seats 41,000.  The place is sure to be packed with a rowdy crowd anxious to beat a BCS opponent.  Fortunately UC has experience with this as they went into Corvallis, Washington last year for a rare win at Oregon State.

In last season's 28-20 UC victory, the Bulldogs ran the ball for 290 yards, which allowed them to hold the ball (and keep UC's offense off the field) for nearly 45 minutes.  Expect more of the same this year.  Gone is RB Ryan Mathews to the NFL, but he is replaced by Robbie Rouse who is only 5-7, but a solid 185 pounds.  Last year against the Bearcats, Rouse had 5 carries for 50 yards.  Even more daunting is the fact that Fresno State returns all 5 starters on the offensive line (and 18 starters total) from last years team.  In addition to the running game, Fresno State boasts as experienced senior quarterback and wide receiver.  I expect them to test UC's pass defense early to keep the defense off balance and setup the run.

If there is one weakness for Fresno State it is their defensive backs.  Two senior starters are gone and are replaced with two sophomores who have never started a game.  Expect Zach Collaros and company to take advantage.

For Cincinnati, they need to take what Fresno State gives them and not hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If they do that, I don't think the Fresno State defense can stop them.  Fresno State's best chance is a repeat of last year's game plan:  run, run, and run some more so that the UC offense doesn't get many opportunites.  UC's reconfigured 4-3 defense will need to do a better job of stuffing the run than last year's 3-4 did.  If they can get off the field, UC should win this game.  Both team's are strong offensively, but UC's is better.  If the defense can hold up, I don't see Fresno State matching the Bearcats score for score.

I don't think the score will be as close the what some of the experts are predicting.  I expect UC to pull away and win fairly easily.  My prediction:  34-23.

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